This week is highly likely to enter a day of market change.
Let's list the views of both the bulls and the bears first.
The bears believe:
1. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 50bp, but we did not follow suit; the currency remains tight.
2. The current economic downturn is significant, with no signs of improvement in the short term.
3. Trading volume continues to shrink, and it is generally believed that "there is no market before a long holiday."
The bulls believe:
1. Stability growth policies are on the way: Various signs indicate that stability growth policies are on the way, with some even calling for a "10 trillion economic stimulus plan."
2. The national team is entering the market again to buy heavily, possibly to strictly defend the 2700-point level.3. The time and space for the index to fall have been quite sufficient.
I personally still lean towards the idea that the medium-term bottom has been tested here, and the probability of a bullish turn is higher.
I have mentioned before that for the market to have a trend, either significant policies are needed, or the national team needs to enter the market in a substantial way, or economic data needs to show an inflection point.
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At present, it seems that the first two signals have already been sent.
In 2022, a strange phenomenon occurred: during the most severe period of the pandemic, sectors such as aviation and tourism actually reached new highs.
Now, although real estate sales volume and price are both weak, and the LPR has not followed the Federal Reserve's rate cut, real estate stocks have been quietly rising consecutively. Some real estate stocks are even close to their May highs.
Funds often anticipate the stabilization and reversal of fundamentals.
The current market style is still dominated by thematic speculation, with the main themes being mergers and acquisitions, and information technology innovation. However, both of these sectors are currently at relatively high levels and have become a feast for shareholders. It may be difficult for outsiders to participate. Some funds are trying to switch to new directions at lower positions, including: real estate, Meta's AI glasses, Tesla's robotaxi, and HarmonyOS PCs.Additionally, the sectors with higher levels of funding discussion are:
1. CXO: The U.S. "Biosecurity Act" was not included in the U.S. Senate's "National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2025," leading to a significant rise in the core stocks of the Hong Kong stock market.
2. Commercial Aerospace: It is anticipated that G60 may continue to launch on a large scale in October.
3. Long-range Artillery: Orders have exceeded expectations.
4. Semiconductors: Wuhan Xinxin's IPO is accelerating. Changxin announces good progress in the localization of equipment.
5. Baijiu: Moutai announces share repurchase and cancellation; however, it is important to note that retail prices continue to decline.
Today, we will observe whether the index can stabilize naturally and if there is a direction that leads the index.